Who will win the Premier League 2016/17 season?

English Football
#183

I think we see the same picture but interpret very different things from it. :slight_smile:

#184

But I think that in the last Decade the team thats top at Christmas has ended becoming Champions unless that team is Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal.

#185

Winter champions is definitely out of the picture though.

#186

Why does it matter who’s top of the league on Christmas? Christmas is just another day of the week. Means very little.

#187

I was just pointing out statistical evidence from the last decade nothing more nothing less.

#188

Here’s an indepth lookback at who has been top at Christmas since the Premier League began in 92, and if they went on to win the title later that season. Teams highlighted in bold eventual winners.

92/93 - Norwich City (Finished 3rd)
93/94 - Man Utd (Finished 1st)
94/95 - Blackburn (Finished 1st)
95/96 - Newcastle (Finished 2nd)
96/97 - Liverpool (Finished 4th)
97/98 - Man Utd (Finished 2nd)
98/99 - Aston Villa (Finished 6th)
99/00 - Leeds United (Finished 3rd)
00/01 - Man Utd (Finished 1st)
01/02 - Newcastle United (Finished 4th)
02/03 - Arsenal (Finished 2nd)
03/04 - Man Utd (Finished 3rd)
04/05 - Chelsea (Finished 1st)
05/06 - Chelsea (Finished 1st)
06/07 - Man Utd (Finished 1st)
07/08 - Arsenal (Finished 3rd)
08/09 - Liverpool (Finished 2nd)
09/10 - Chelsea (Finished 1st)
10/11 - Man Utd (Finished 1st)
11/12 - Man City (Finished 1st)
12/13 - Man Utd (Finished 1st)
13/14 - Liverpool (Finished 2nd)
14/15 - Chelsea (Finished 1st)
15/16 - Leicester City (Finished 1st)

So out of a possible 24, it’s happened 12 times, meaning there is exactly a 50% chance they will stay there or drop down.

The interesting trend however from the list as you can see is how common it’s became in the last decade. Since 2004/05, all bar three seasons, every team has gone on to win the title who was top at Christmas.

Arsenal have been top at Christmas twice, but failed to win the League, quelle surprise :sweat_smile:

3 Likes
#189

The points gap is also important. Depending on the outcome of the Liverpool match, Chelsea will have a 6 or 7 point lead over second place. The last 2 seasons the gap at Christmas has only been 2 or 3 points and they still both went on to win it.

Chelsea aren’t bottlers like us!

2 Likes
#190

Amazing that the Invincible’s didn’t lead the league at Christmas, from memory Man United was like a point ahead and then lost To Wolves 1-0 first game after Christmas.

#191

Yeah but it doesn’t mean much. It’s an overused term. Nobody says for example who’s top of the league on Halloween.

#192

[quote=“GunnerGirl, post:191, topic:59, full:true”]
Yeah but it doesn’t mean much. It’s an overused term. Nobody says for example who’s top of the league on Halloween.
[/quote]The reason the term being top at Christmas gets used a lot, is simply because it’s the half way stage :slight_smile: It being around Christmas, is just a nice coincidence.

2 Likes
#193

Yeah I understand but surely who’s top after 19 games would make more sense?

#194

Bet you we’ll go on a winning streak from now.

#195

Put it this way then. There wont be many who have won it from 4th place 9 points behind with an inferior goal difference.

2 Likes
#196

So we have a big game plan considering the history then!

This season, logically has more variables I’d imagine with the top 6 all capable of going on ‘runs’ throughout periods in the season coupled with shithousing teams; like Everton or Burnley forcing the variables even further. Or that’s all just speculative bollocks and I’m just trying to see a positive in all of this :gunnersaurus:

1 Like
#197

not to be picky, but yes if it was random it would be :smiley:

But we won it three times, so it means we’re better at catching up.
Liverpool have been top thrice and and never won it.
United failed thrice, but then again they won it 5 times so they won’t complain.
Chelsea appear to never have lost the league once they’re top at christmas though :sweat:

edit: actually do people say thrice any more? I had an English teacher who was about 500 years old back when I was in school lol

#198

Tbf if Chelsea finish the first half of the season with 49 points which looking at their remaining 2 games is entirely possible they’d have the second best first half in PL history which gives them a pretty comfortable position for the remainder of the season and would need us to have a great and them to have a really really bad second half for us to overtake them.

It’s mathematically possible but really not likely at all.

3 Likes
#199

Oh fuck! Are you trying to jinx it again? Not that difficult seeing our fixtures though.

#200

Assuming we finish 49-40, we would basically need the reverse.

#201

Well I don’t believe in that and we have easy fixtures

#202

It’s not who is top, and when.
It’s to do with looking at previous seasons and the facts, and they are that the team in the top two at this stage of the season will generally win it.

You also have to look at our record since we have been at the Emirates.
We tend to keep repeating the same mistakes, and most seasons follow a pattern of failure, even if we have good patches.

I’m not saying it’s impossible to win the PL, but I think there is more chance of us finishing outside the top four than actually winning it.

If you are that confident, you can get very good odds at the bookies.
I’m sure they will be glad to take your cash on a wild bet like that.