I can see that there is definite space for his beliefs, a centrist pro-EU force that hasn’t shit the bed (counts out the Lib Dems, sorry lads).
But right now he is so toxic that he would he wise to operate this from the shadows and out of sight.
Also, Jim Murphy, hmmm.
Now, Jim Murphy did a great job in turning East Renfrewshire Red back in the day. Apart from the borders, this was a last bastion of Tory sympathy here in Scotland, due to affluent areas like Newton Mearns. It was said to be the safest Tory seat in Scotland all up until 1997 when Jim won it for Labour.
He then held that seat until 2015, last year. When he, as Scottish Labour leader lost that supposedly safe Labour seat to the SNP in an unprecedented swing of the vote. He wasn’t the only one, as Labour MPs in Scotland were reduced to 1 (by the skin of his teeth as there was yet another 25% swing to the SNP.)
I use this as a very relevant example (as he is part if Blair’s team) that, what may have worked back in the 90s and early 2000s may not work today. It is a different world now.
Now no doubts these guys are very accomplished, savvy political operators. In a conventional zeitgeist, they may do very well indeed. But what we are seeing now worldwide, with supposedly incompetent populists gaining unbelievable support left, right and centre (actually scratch the last one ;)) is a place where Blair and his ilk are unlikely to thrive outside of places where his base is.
Tony Blair to me draws many parallels to Hillary Clinton. Powerful figures of the 90s and 00s, but plagued by scandals (especially involving the Middle East) and subsequently disliked by many among their population.
If we follow this metaphor to its conclusion, then: Blair vs Farage 2020. Tony Blair wins record amounts of the vote in London and other metropolitan areas. But Nigel Farage sweeps the rest of the nation to become PM.
That is basically what happened to Hillary, as she racks up a big popular vote win in the election a couple weeks ago, built on record setting votes in California and New York. But since she lost a few midwestern states, she is not president elect right now.
I hope lessons are learnt because of this.